UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

who the **** r u? it's not like uve contributed any meaningful posts to this thread yourself

* Edited at 10.19.2022, 8:16 PM ET *

I've been switching between Zuba and Almeida for a while now, gonna stick with Almeida. If he gasses out like he did against Dawodu then Almeida might actually end up finishing him

It's no coincidence that there is more emotions involved these days in picking fights due to the rapid legalization of sports betting in the United States and the rest of the world.  People are fighting with each other because they have money on their picks and they want to believe that their picks are correct so that they can make money and if anyone says otherwise, it's like attacking their money and their ego for that matter.

Honestly, gambling is an addiction much like alcohol/drugs/****ography and all that bad crap that exists in this world.  It's a shame that the UFC  and other sporting leagues promote betting so blantantly but they are a business and society has evolved now to accept it as commonplace.  I remember the days when it was just about the fights and if you wanted to bet, you had to go to a casino in some tribal area in order to do that or had to go to some obscure carribbean based website to do it.  Now people can sit on the toilet and make picks from their mobile phones and lose rapid amounts of money doing so.

This rapid legalization of mobile betting and the increase of sporting leagues actively promoting it during their broadcasts is going to ruin a lot of lives. There is a lot of people I know who are already in debt because they can't stop their gambling addiction no matter what. 

Statistically 4 underdogs should come through (conservatively). I've only got 3. As of today I'd be taking:

1. Chook
2. Belal
3. Gadzhi

I've got to fill that 4 spot and maybe a 5 spot as 13 fights puts this slightly over 4 by the stats.

I'm looking at:

- Lansberg
- AJ
- Almeida
- TJ

Me rn trying to calculate rounds won probability from SA - SL + A% - SS - KD + KD% 

FIorot vs Chookagian is probably the pick I'm the most worried about here. Manon is a great striker though she didn't look the best against Maia, and Chookagian is really big and can be tricky. The gate to Valentina might stay closed here

think youre on the right side with most of those Daebak. Like gadzhi a lot. think that brady belal fight is close, i have brady but could go either way. i think TJ has a lot of potential, im playing almeida for sure and AJ is a close fight in my mind, depends on how smart he can fight too. sugar sean is a sneaky one too, might get there on a decision. think between his movment, and Yan historically starting slow gives option open to sean split decision. yan can win any way and might wreck him in 1, if that fight goes distance though guarantee might be close. still have to cap beneil vs gamrot, chook. of course olivera has a shot too. 

Ghadzi is horrible. What's he good at? Abu gonna cream him

I think people are too harsh on Volkan for his fight with Craig, He just didn't want to take any chances against Craig because everyone know what happen if he get you in his guard, People are saying Krylov look great against Craig while Volkan look bad, But who has  a W and who has a L to Craig

Take 

Almeida 
AJ 
TJ 
RUN far far away from Lansberg. 
Take Gamrot or Nikishiwa 
Ghadzhi solid pick

thanks, and good luck!

Volkan will defend krulov's take down 
I think volkan's striking is better than krylov. He has better power and option krylov has some speed advantage but not that much 
Volkan by  UD

My personal thought is Fior gets a finish

Belal has been working so hard, it appears he really wants it. He's looked terrific in his last 4-5 fights, and I think he comes out Saturday smart, calculated and takes 2/3 for a dec win. 

Good Luck!!

And people call me crazy for trying to pin point underdog #s like you're talking about...

If they only knew how much statistics and averages of things like this are basically out there to find and when you play around it, you'll be winning more than you're losing.

Kudos to you for playing around a statistic/thing like that. I like 3-4 on this card, typically from my recording of this, numbered cards/PPVs are typically very square/favorite heavy. Definitely don't see Chook as one, best of luck with that! 😄

Everyone who downvoted you knows deep down that you’re right.

Chad Oliveira is gonna humilliate this russian khabibs toy, anyone who disagrees with me has no brain, and there is no doubt about it.

@andrew he doesnt care, he isnt an active user, he manages the site, of course, but I doubt he reads all posts, and people have been ruining the merits of the ufc threads for months. 

* Edited at 10.20.2022, 4:07 AM ET *

My quick thoughts on main event:

Almost inevitible to see a takedown in 1st round in my opinion.
I think Charles won't be avoiding that much, will let his boxing, front kicks and flying knees go. I am wondering tho, how quickly is Charles able to stand up and whether he's able to fight heavy hips of Makhachev. I see Makhachev trying to open up on the ground after controlling Charles - maybe after the sub threat he"ll have to do more just to controll him, and if that happens, there is space for Charles to threaten a triangle choke for sure.

What is so exciting about the fight, is that both guys represent their roots not only in Nationality and tough territotories they come from, but also in a fighting style matter. One a Dagestani wrestler, the other one a Brazilian jiu jitsu artist. It shows how the sport has developed over the years. Not a one dimensional fight. Great to see they respect each other