Though the UFC 106 card took a serious hit following Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar’s withdrawal from his scheduled title defense against Shane Carwin, it elevated Tito Ortiz vs. Forest Griffin 2 to the main event slot, offering a matchup with intrigue, history and a wealth of personality. Given that four of the UFC’s five champions are currently sidelined in various states of physical disrepair, Ortiz-Griffin is about as good a replacement main event as one could ask for under the circumstances.
While my predictions rating took a serious hit with UFC 105 last week—I picked 60% correct for the main card—my overall success rate since Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers stands at 78% over the course of nine fights. Check out my official predictions for the entire main card of UFC 106, which takes place tomorrow night from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, and airs live on Pay Per View.
Tito Ortiz (15-6-1) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-6) (205lbs)
The Scenario: While both Ortiz and Griffin are former UFC light heavyweight champions, they ruled different eras of the sport. Ortiz last defended his title a full six years before Griffin went on to defeat Quinton Jackson to take the belt. The talent pool has gotten significantly deeper in every weight class since 2002, when Ortiz topped the division. Ortiz’s five title defenses are no laughing matter, but Griffin’s back-to-back victories over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Jackson are just a bit more significant in today’s MMA landscape.
Both fighters are coming off of disappointing losing streaks, and while those losses were to highly respected contenders, there can be little doubt both are desperate for a win to stop the bleeding.
The Prediction: As always, Ortiz has been talking a big game heading into this one while Griffin maintains a low profile. Despite all the talk of his potential post-back surgery, training with Freddie Roach, and making another run for the title, I expect Ortiz to have some serious ring rust coming into this one. As long as Griffin can avoid the double leg and suffocating top game of the former champion, the quick turnaround from his last fight—the worst performance of his career to the best fighter he has ever faced—he should be able to dish out enough damage with straight jabs and whipping leg kicks to even the score with a decision victory. The only difference this time around? This one will be unanimous.
Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs. Anthony Johnson (8-2) (170lbs)
The Scenario: In a battle that looks to be a sure-fire contender for either Fight of the Night, Knockout of the Night, or both, two of the most explosive and athletic fighters in any division will collide in the co-main event of the evening, as Koscheck and Johnson both step in on late notice to add some much-needed depth to the main card. Both of these men have strong bases in wrestling. Although Koscheck’s wrestling pedigree looks more impressive on paper, unless the AKA-trained contender has learned to take constructive criticism he will likely elect to stand and trade with one of the most powerful strikers in the division. You do not need to be an analyst to imagine what is likely to happen in that event.
The Prediction: Weight-cutting issues aside, Anthony Johnson has proven that he can take his explosive, knockout power well into the third round in his knockout win over Kevin Burns last December, which does not bode well for Koscheck. Another bit of bad news for the yellow-haired brawler: nobody even knows if he will be able to take Johnson down should he attempt it. While I would never recommend openly betting against Koscheck against the vast majority of the welterweight division, his style will do him no favors in this one. Look for Koscheck to take some damage early before adapting to a more conservative game plan. Unfortunately for him, it will be too little too late, as Johnson catches him and pummels him into a dominant TKO midway into the second round.
Paulo Thiago (11-1) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-0) (170lbs)
The Scenario: Following Karo Parisyan’s very late withdrawal from his main card fight against Dustin Hazelett, the welterweight battle between promising prospects Thiago and Volkmann has been moved to a main card slot. Carrying impressive professional records into the cage with them on Saturday night, both Thiago and Volkmann remain wild cards in the division. With his upset TKO victory over Josh Koscheck earlier this year, and after having gone three competitive rounds with former top contender Jon Fitch in his last outing, Thiago has the edge in experience over top-notch competition, something that could help him eek out the win in this one.
The Prediction: Both men have aggressive and effective submission games, but Thiago’s will work better for him in a match-up against an equally aggressive opponent. Since he trains out of Minnesota Martial Arts with the likes of Brock Larson, Brock Lesnar, and Sean Sherk, Volkmann will likely be pushing the pace in this one, at least for as long as it lasts. Look for Volkmann to use crisper stand up and superior positional control to navigate through the dangerous guard of Thiago throughout much of the fight before finally getting caught in a choke in the third.
Luiz Cane (10-1-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (17-3) (205lbs)
The Scenario: In a fight sure to delight hardcore fans around the world, highly-ranked Brazlilian light heavyweights Cane and Nogueira will battle for exposure and a chance to establish themselves as a credible threat to the light heavyweight championship in 2010. With his aggressive and powerful striking, strong chin, and finishing attitude, Cane will prove to be a handful for anyone in his division going forward. Nogueira, for his part, will be looking to make a splash in one of the most stacked divisions in the sport in what will be his UFC debut.
The Prediction: Cane probably has the stronger chin of the two, but Nogueira may have the more technically sound striking game, especially where his boxing is concerned. This one will be competitive from the start, with Cane moving forward throughout the contest, but look for Nogueira to stay on his toes and do enough damage in the eyes of the judges to earn a hard-fought Unanimous Decision, emerging as an intriguing threat to the top of the 205lb division.
Amir Sadollah (1-1) vs. Phil Baroni (13-11) (170lbs)
The Scenario: In what is one of the strangest matches on paper in recent UFC memory, Sadollah, the winner of the seventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, will take on one of the more experience men on the UFC’s roster when he attempts to rebound from the first loss of his professional career in August against “The New York Bad Ass,” Phil Baroni. Known for being an explosive striker with little else to offer opponents, Baroni will prove to be a sturdy test for a young man determined to prove himself in the wake of lofty expectations following his winning performances on the reality show last year.
The Prediction: There is little doubt that Baroni possesses the advantage in terms of knockout power in this match, however, that will not be enough to earn him a victory. As long as Sadollah elects to take his time and listen to his coaches—unlike three months ago against Johnny Hendricks—he should be able to wear Baroni down until he can control him on the ground in the second and third rounds. Look for some early adversity to provide more fuel to Sadollah’s fire, as he bounces back to secure the fight-ending, limb-wrenching submission in the final frame.
